Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections

Seasonal droughts are a common feature of the Iberian (Mediterranean) climate. They can have severe impacts on both natural and human life – especially, when recurring in consecutive years. In this study, we investigate potential climate change recurrent drought events Peninsula (IP). With aim, use new set indices introduced Moemken Pinto (2022): Recurrent Dry Year Index (RDYI) Consecutive Drought (CDY) Index. These applied to large EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble consisting 25 different global-to-regional model (GCM-RCM) chains that follow RCP8.5 scenario with 12 km horizontal resolution. A drizzle correction simple multiplicative approach used bias-adjust daily precipitation sums. Results reveal general tendency towards more conditions IP under global warming levels (GWLs). Moreover, projected occur frequent last longer. While mean responses only moderate for GWL +2°C (compared pre-industrial average), strongly enhanced +3°C GWL. The magnitude changes shows some sensitivity choice index model. Typically, pronounced based effective (EDI) show larger spread individual GCMs than various RCMs. Nevertheless, signals robust most all indices, agreement We conclude is confronted an increased risk future decades. If should exceed threshold, majority models projects almost permanent state which could result implications population ecosystems.